8 comments on “A nautical problem”

1. truly you’re viewing this whole episode as only a mathematician would! ;-)

2. Just sum up the following four potential scenarios:

Probability of Fire (“F”)
Probability that cargo is Unharmed (“U”)
Probability of Chemical damage (“C”)
Probability of sinking (“K”)

Call the sum of all four, representing 100% probability “You”. I’ll let you do the workings out.

Cheers Larry. Sorry about the highly likely loss of goods.
B

3. The exercise made me smile, the extension made me spit up tea. Hoping for the the very slim chance that your stuff arrived safe and sound.

4. Banjo has a good starting point here.

We also need R (“an external factor which means the other risk factors are correlated”), E (“the likelyhood that you will get compo”), and D (“the dollars you will get in compo”).

So we have (U*R*F*U*C*K*E*D)/(U)

5. Thanks fellas – very helpful. Can’t disagree with your conclusion though…

6. I just got an email to tell me some rare, only-available-in-Japan motorbike parts I ordered were also on that ship. It’s kind of weird to think just how much gets lost when this sort of thing happens – how many containers were carrying luxury cars and so on.

7. @James – yes indeed. I ran into my cousin the other day, who is an engineer, and it turned out that he – or rather his company – also lost things on the boat, specifically one of these high precision lathes: http://www.citizenmachinery.co.uk/gn3200.asp